Mid-Year Review of Global IPO Market 2026: No Broad-Based Recovery, But a Highly Tech-Heavy Structural Bull Market

The U.S. equity market displayed a “slow start, strong finish” recovery trajectory in the first half of 2026. The sluggish start with only 27 IPOs in Q1 did not stop the overall recovery momentum. According to Renaissance Capital, U.S. IPO proceeds (including SPACs) reached about $28.4 billion in January–May 2026. Excluding SPACs, traditional IPO proceeds in the U.S. market in the first half of 2025 were $16.5 billion, according to S&P Global; comparable figures for the same period in 2026 are still being compiled, though Q1 traditional IPO activity has grown in absolute terms. Overall, the recovery trend in the U.S. IPO market is clear, but the significant rise in SPAC share means the “recovery” is more about diversification of listing channels than a full‑blown explosion of traditional IPOs.

At the industry level, the AI ecosystem and aerospace are the dominant themes. U.S. AI chip company Cerebras went public in May, raising $5.6 billion and becoming the year's largest global IPO at the time; a month later, SpaceX broke that record with a $75 billion offering. Morgan Stanley noted in a report: “Two long‑term trends are driving IPO activity—first, the large‑scale build‑out of AI and digital infrastructure ecosystems; second, increasing investment in aerospace, defence, and space‑related technologies.”

From a liquidity perspective, the U.S. market's capacity to absorb large IPOs has significantly improved. Goldman Sachs estimates that share buybacks by U.S. listed companies in 2026 will reach $1.3 trillion, exceeding the total equity issuance of about $1.1 trillion for the same period. Combined with long‑term institutional capital of over $37 trillion from foreign investors and passive ETFs, the market has ample standby capital. The projected IPO offering size represents only about 1% of total U.S. market capitalisation, below the long‑term average of 1.5% since 1995. Abundant liquidity provides a solid foundation for the concentrated arrival of mega‑IPOs.

What truly has the market on edge, however, is the imminent arrival of “super‑unicorns.” On June 12, SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq at $135 per share, opening at $150, touching an intra‑day high of $176.52, and closing at $160.95, up 19.22% from the offering price. SpaceX's valuation target is as high as $1.75 trillion, and if the overallotment option is fully exercised, total proceeds could reach $85.7 billion.

SpaceX is just the beginning. According to market sources, OpenAI and Anthropic have both confidentially filed for IPOs, though the exact offering sizes have not been officially announced. Market expectations place each at around $60 billion, with the three combined potentially exceeding $200 billion, but these figures remain subject to final filing confirmation.

Goldman Sachs has raised its full‑year U.S. IPO proceeds forecast from $160 billion at the start of the year to $225 billion. Supporting this optimistic outlook is not only the concentrated listing of super‑unicorns but also ample market liquidity. Combined with long‑term institutional capital of over $37 trillion from foreign investors and passive ETFs, the market has ample standby capital. The projected IPO offering size represents only about 1% of total U.S. market capitalisation, below the long‑term average of 1.5% since 1995.

The A‑share IPO market in 2026 is showing an overall acceleration, with many core metrics significantly higher than the same period last year.

On the listing side, as of June 15, 67 companies have listed on the A‑share market year‑to‑date, raising a total of RMB 59.998 billion. The number of listings increased by about 38% year‑on‑year, and total proceeds rose by about 66%. By exchange, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) added 34 new listings, accounting for more than half, making it the absolute main driver of A‑share IPOs; the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards, the STAR Market, and the ChiNext added 14, 10, and 9 respectively.

The explosive growth of the BSE is particularly striking. From January 1 to June 15, 2026, the BSE added 34 listed companies, surpassing the total of 26 for the full year of 2025, and accounting for more than 50% of all new A‑share listings in the same period. Previously, since its inception in 2021, the BSE's share of annual new listings had never exceeded 25%. The BSE's IPO review efficiency has also improved significantly: this year's successful listings took an average of only 362 days from formal acceptance of the IPO application to listing, shortening the cycle by 80 days compared with the average of 442 days in 2025.

The quality of new stocks is also steadily rising. The 34 new BSE companies listed in 2026 had an average net profit attributable to parent of RMB 125 million in 2025, more than three times the average of RMB 39 million for existing BSE companies. Among them, 32 and 12 companies respectively met the minimum net profit thresholds for ChiNext and the main boards for the most recent year. The primary market is extremely hot: the average winning rate for BSE online offerings since the start of the year is only 0.0315%, and the capital required to secure “100 shares” has approached RMB 6 million. The average first‑day gain of the 34 BSE new stocks this year reached 229.12%, delivering handsome returns to investors participating in the offerings.

Across the entire market, the review efficiency of the three exchanges has improved simultaneously and substantially since the start of the year. In 2025, the average time from IPO acceptance to listing on the Shanghai main board was 701 days, and 885 days on the Shenzhen board; entering 2026, the average time on the Shanghai main board has shortened dramatically to 315 days, and to 360 days on the Shenzhen board.

The acceleration is even more pronounced on the review side. In the first quarter of 2026, the three exchanges reviewed 46 IPO listing applications, far exceeding the 8 in the same period last year, a year‑on‑year increase of 475%. According to Wind data, as of June 1, 80 IPO companies were reviewed on the A‑share market, with 79 successfully passing the review, a 276% increase compared with 21 in the same period of 2025.

The expansion on the acceptance side is equally significant. In the first five months, the three exchanges accepted a total of 44 new companies, an increase of over 60% from 27 in the same period last year. May saw a “mini‑peak” of IPO acceptances, with 24 applications accepted by the three exchanges in that month alone, exceeding the total for the first four months combined. As of June 7, there were 301 companies under review across all boards.

The return of big projects is another hallmark of the A‑share recovery. ChangXin Memory Technologies plans to raise RMB 29.5 billion and passed its listing review on May 27 and has submitted for registration; China Resources New Energy plans to raise RMB 24.5 billion; HKC Corporation plans to raise RMB 8.5 billion. Ni Zhengdong, founder of Zero2IPO Group, said that the venture capital market in 2026 is “not just recovering, but fully heating up,” with “hundreds of billions in IPOs emerging intensively and the tech sector welcoming a long‑overdue boom.”

Technology companies dominate A‑share IPOs. As of June 14, 19 companies listed on the STAR Market and ChiNext, raising RMB 28.546 billion, accounting for 48% of total market proceeds. By industry, hard‑tech sectors such as technology hardware, semiconductors, advanced materials, and auto parts accounted for a high proportion. Among the 67 newly listed companies this year, 65 are strategic emerging industry enterprises, of which 17, 14, and 13 belong to next‑generation information technology, high‑end equipment manufacturing, and new materials, respectively.

The improvement in review efficiency is especially noteworthy. The average time from acceptance to listing review for 11 STAR Market companies was 164 days, about half the average in 2025. The average time for 15 ChiNext companies was 191 days, a reduction of 217 days compared with 2025.

If the A‑share market is a moderate recovery, then the Hong Kong market in 2026 is “full throttle”.

In the first quarter, the Hong Kong market saw 40 new IPOs, raising a total of HK$109.9 billion, ranking first globally. Compared with 15 IPOs and HK$18.2 billion raised in the same period of 2025, the number of new listings soared by 167% and total proceeds surged by 504%.

Entering the second quarter, the heat has only intensified. In the first five months, the Hong Kong market had 60 IPOs, up 122.2% year‑on‑year; total proceeds reached approximately HK$166.8 billion, up 110.7% year‑on‑year. To date, 65 companies have listed, raising over HK$170 billion. Deloitte forecasts that Hong Kong will see about 160 new listings in 2026, raising at least HK$300 billion; UBS is even more optimistic, projecting proceeds of HK$350‑400 billion.

The Hong Kong surge is no accident. On the one hand, the “A+H” dual‑listing model continues to gain momentum; in the first five months, 19 “A+H” stocks raised about HK$97.6 billion, accounting for 58.5% of Hong Kong IPO proceeds. A‑share leaders such as Muyuan Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, and Montage Technology have all listed in Hong Kong. On the other hand, the HKEx's Chapter 18C (specialist technology companies) and Chapter 18A (biotech companies) listing channels continue to drive activity; 10 Chapter 18C stocks raised about HK$26.4 billion, accounting for 15.8%.

By industry, hard technology is the dominant theme of Hong Kong IPOs. As of June, tech companies accounted for 63% of Hong Kong IPO issuance, compared with just 16% last year. Among them, hardware equipment raised HK$52.2 billion (33.7%), semiconductors raised HK$35.0 billion (22.7%), and software services raised HK$14.3 billion (9.2%). Hard‑tech and advanced manufacturing companies in semiconductors, machinery, and electrical equipment contributed nearly HK$129.3 billion, representing over 70% of total issuance.

The primary market frenzy is equally staggering. Among the 60 new stocks in the first five months, only 6 broke their offering price on the first day, a break‑rate of just 10%, with an average first‑day gain of about 59.76%. Lightelligence Technology‑P soared 383.62% on its debut, the largest first‑day gain for a Hong Kong IPO in nearly eight years. Yifei Technology received 14,855.4 times oversubscription in the public offering, breaking the record for the highest oversubscription multiple in Hong Kong history.

More noteworthy is the qualitative shift in investor composition. Among the 60 IPOs in the first five months, 53 (88%) introduced cornerstone investors, with total cornerstone investment reaching HK$66.9 billion, double that of the same period last year. Many overseas long‑only funds and sovereign wealth funds, which historically never participated in cornerstone investments, have recently served as cornerstone investors for the first time, signalling a structural shift in global capital's preference for Chinese tech assets. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Qatar Investment Authority, and other sovereign funds have frequently appeared in cornerstone investor lists.

Hong Kong also has strong momentum ahead. As of the end of May, 519 companies were still queuing for listing on the HKEx. In May alone, 89 companies submitted listing applications. UBS Securities expects the Hong Kong IPO market to remain active in the second half of the year.

Combining the performance of the three markets, the deep‑seated logic behind this IPO recovery can be summarised in three points:

First, “tech content” is the only hard currency. Whether it is AI and aerospace in the U.S., semiconductors and advanced manufacturing in the A‑share market, or hard tech and large AI models in Hong Kong, technological attributes have become the common threshold for IPO projects to gain market recognition. The primary market has reached a consensus that “without AI, there is no quality; without AI, there is no premium.” Zero2IPO data shows that 90% of capital is concentrated in cutting‑edge technology fields such as AI, integrated circuits, and commercial space.

Second, capital is “picking the big, leaving the small,” quality over quantity. The divergence between falling global IPO numbers and rising proceeds clearly shows that capital is concentrating on leading, high‑quality, large‑scale projects. Investors are no longer chasing speculative concepts, but are focusing on cash flow, profitability paths, and sustainable business models.

Third, long‑term capital is entering the market, providing a solid foundation. Sovereign funds, pension funds, and other long‑term capital are participating in IPO cornerstone investments at an unprecedented scale. These investors are not short‑term arbitrageurs; they are driven by structural allocation needs for Chinese tech assets and the global AI wave. UBS noted that global active mutual funds' allocation to Chinese stocks has risen from a low of about 5% to nearly 7%.

Looking ahead to the second half, the momentum of the global IPO market is likely to continue, but challenges remain.

On the positive side, the wave of super‑unicorn listings has only just begun. SpaceX has already listed successfully, and IPOs by OpenAI and Anthropic are imminent. CICC expects the A‑share market to see a concentrated wave of hard‑tech IPOs in the second half, covering semiconductors, humanoid robots, commercial space, low‑altitude economy, and other frontier technology sectors. UBS estimates that Hong Kong IPO proceeds for the full year 2026 will reach HK$350‑400 billion.

However, challenges also exist. SpaceX has already gone public, and super‑unicorns like OpenAI and Anthropic are about to launch their IPOs, whose huge fundraising may pose a periodic test to global market liquidity. External factors such as geopolitical conflicts and global energy price fluctuations could also disrupt the IPO window at any time.

The concentration of mega‑IPOs often signals that market sentiment is approaching a peak, which could put short‑term pressure on tech stock valuations. Yet some argue that mega‑IPOs themselves do not necessarily trigger market adjustments—the key is whether industry fundamentals can support valuations. Whether the industry trend can sustain ultimately depends on underlying demand, not the mega‑IPOs themselves. From a longer‑term perspective, the AI industry continues to expand and its development cycle lengthens, and the wave of trillion‑yuan tech companies is only just beginning.

Kevin Foley, Co‑Head of Global Investment Banking at JPMorgan, offered perhaps the most balanced assessment: total global capital market financing may not reach the levels of 2020 or 2021, but 2026 will be the best year in the past five.